September 16, 2008 Commentary on the Market



Dear Clients,

There is an ancient Chinese proverb that says "May you live in interesting times!" Unfortunately these are interesting times that have us witnessing the downfall of giants and significant losses in our investments. Most of all these times challenge our ability to make sound decisions - decisions about with which we do business and how we do business. We also face decisions whether or not to stay on the course we have charted together or run for the lifeboats.

We at ASAM understand that our relationship is based on trust and that you choose us as your financial professionals because you trust our ability to make decisions.

We spent most of the late afternoon and early evening yesterday on conference calls with many of the chief investment strategist and chief economists of the major institutions in which we do business with (JP Morgan, Russell Investment, etc…).

There was a distinct consensus:

The bankruptcy filing of one of the oldest investment firms on Wall Street, along with the forced merger of another, will remind people of other times of Wall Street turmoil. This is not the economy of October 1929. Structurally, it is a far more stable economy, prone to fewer and shallower recessions. Nor is this the stock market of March 2000. Back at the turn of the millenium, technology stocks had been bid up to levels that could not be justified by any conventional measure of valuation. By sharp contrast, the stock market today is at a lower level, despite significantly higher profits, particularly outside of financials, with much higher dividend yields, much lower long-term interest rates, and lower taxes on dividends and capital gains. By the numbers and assuming a moderately growing economy, the stock market was expensive in March 2000. By the same numbers and under the same assumption, it is cheap today.

There is actually some potential for stronger economic growth in 2009.

Having said all of this, it is a very uncertain time in financial markets and it is a time when investors need balanced advice more than ever. Today is a day when many investors will feel uncomfortable and feel tempted to abandon that discipline which is so essential to long-term financial success. We cannot know exactly which financial cards will be dealt to us next. But the value of good financial advice has never been in predicting the cards the economy and markets will deal us, but rather playing those cards with the discipline necessary to achieve the long-term goals of clients. That is why, today, more than ever, investors need the level-headed advice of a good financial advisor. Our role is to keep you engaged and not allow you to let your emotions take over.

ASAM has always claimed that having a big brokerage firm name on your statements should not necessarily make you feel safe. It is more important to have a competent financial advisor than a name on a building. With that said, we wanted to reach out to you and assure you about some fundamental facts:

  1. Our Broker-Dealer is Healthy - Your account is on the books and records of our broker-dealer NFP Securities Inc., NFP Securities Inc.'s parent company, National Financial Partners Corp., is a well capitalized public company (NYSE: NFP) that does not engage in any trading or investment banking on its own account and is therefore not exposed to any market risk from decline in the value of its holdings. The company has a strong liquidity position.


  2. A Third Party Custodian Safe-keeps Your Assets - Your assets are held in custody by Fidelity (NFS) - a large and well capitalized company that makes sure all your records are properly kept and provides CAPCO coverage in excess of SIPC coverage so that your assets are safeguarded up to certain amounts in the event of financial institution failure or liquidation. It does not protect against market loss. The presence of a third party custodian can act as an additional set of eyes that can help reduce the likelihood of client assets being used inappropriately by financial institutions or investment managers. This helps ensure that your mutual fund, annuity or investment management company cannot use your money inappropriately to meet any outstanding business liabilities they have.


  3. We Have Made Prudent Decisions - Our business here at ASAM has been built through our efforts as owners and the efforts of our team and is not controlled or owned by a national investment bank engaged in hundreds of business activities and where decisions get made thousands of miles away from you - our client. We have built our reputation through a lifetime of working with you and we will never risk that reputation on the kind of risky bets that could contribute to the problems that some large institutions are experiencing today.


  4. Planning and Strategy Will Pay Off - We have spent much time planning and strategizing together to minimize the effect setbacks such as this have on your long term financial goal. With many of you we went together through such turbulence in the markets in 2000 and 2001. Very importantly - ask yourself what would have happened if you changed your investment strategy in October of 2001? For most of us this would have made realizing the losses and missing on the substantial gains of the last four years. Diversification which we worked to achieve may not guarantee against loss, but should help mitigate the extent of the damage. The long-term strategy that we have created together should do its job over the long run.


  5. We Want To Talk - We want to talk to you. We want to know what you are thinking, what your fears are and how the markets are affecting your plans and your financial life. Please call us at any time. It is in times like these that we want to prove our value to you. We want to be there for you to explain, adjust and make decisions together. The good decisions we make together will help us through this storm. During good times and bad, you will never find us hiding under our desks avoiding calls from concerned clients. We will continue to take a proactive approach to deliver whatever peace of mind that we can possibly can.

Thank you again for trusting ASAM with such an important element of your lives.

Warmest Regards,

Stuart Horowitz, MBA, RFC, CFP®

Senior Partner

Andrew G. Rosenberg, Esq. CFP®
Senior Partner